Finans

JP Morgan: TESLA aktien kan kollapse til 100$

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Efter de seneste dages kraftige fald stiger TESLA aktien igen idag, efter Elon Musk lækkede at de nåede akkurat over på 2.000 af Model 3 i sidste uge, hvilket dog stadig er væsentligt lavere end selskabets egen guidance på 2.500 enheder om ugen (og 5.000 enheder før de reducerede det mål).

Ifølge JP Morgans aktie strateg så er dagens stigning formentlig blot det såkaldte “dead cat bounce”, da han skriver at TESLA aktien “muligvis er ude af stand til at undgå et fortsat udsalg, da et sammenfald af uheldige begivenheder kan besegle dets skæbne – uanset 1. kvartals produktions resultater”

Som resultat af dette syn på aktien, anbefaler JP Morgan deres kunder at købe “TSLA June 100 strike puts for $2.01, indicatively ($252.48 reference price)”, da banken tror at “markedet underpriser TESLAs indbyggede risiko”.

Ydermere tilføjer JP Morgans Shawn Quigg at “et skifte i stemningen i både aktie og lånemarkederne de seneste 2 uger, kan have ændret reward-risk dynamikken i aktien, hvilket vil gøre enhver genfinansiering af TESLA’s gældsforpligtelser potentielt sværere og dyrere”

JP Morgan udlægger deres foruroligende rationale for deres short anbefaling således:

TSLA is down 19.5% over the past two weeks as a confluence of negative events weighs on sentiment ahead of its Q1 production results.

Factors weighing on the stock include growing concerns that Q1 production results could disappoint, both Uber and Tesla having fatal car accidents, NVDA and Toyota announcing the suspension of their autonomous driving programs,
Moody’s downgrading TSLA debt on concerns of lower than expected Q1 production results, and a broader weakness in Technology stocks. TSLA bonds are trading significantly lower following the Moody’s downgrade, as concerns mount about the company’s ability to grow its way out of future financial difficulty given its high cash burn, near-term debt maturities, heavy debt load and capex guidance.

Den langt større risiko for Tesla er deres voldsomme og usete negative pengestrømme – og som JP Morgan skriver:

In 2018 we estimate TSLA will burn over $700M in adjusted free cash, in addition to having a $390M convertible bond coming due. In 2019, TSLA has nearly $1B in convertible bonds coming due alone. TSLA could reduce its cash burn by reducing capex, and also appears to have an option to pledge its Gigafactory in Nevada as collateral to secure future debt financing. However, continued equity weakness will make any convertible debt financing more difficult, more expensive and likely more dilutive to equity holders.

Thus, disappointing results could place considerable pressure on the stock as dilution fears exacerbate the weakness. Additionally, we see a scenario where better than expected results may also no longer be enough to keep bullish investors engaged as the reward-risk dynamic appears to have deteriorated.

Og som bringer os til deres interessante konklusion: “Tesla historien kan være ovre”:

… a continued stock decline could accelerate equity dilution concerns and create a self-feeding downward spiral in the stock, making our tail risk scenario plausible. J.P. Morgan Auto and Auto Parts analyst Ryan Brinkman is Underweight TSLA with a 2018 year-end price target of $190. Our model incorporates better than expected Model 3 Q1 production results (vs. Street expectations), but does not incorporate any type of equity dilution, thus a potential bear-case scenario could be significantly lower than our price target.

 

 

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